Volume 41 Issue 6
Dec.  2023
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WANG Feiyin, YUAN Jintong, WANG Lei. Coupling Failure Mode and Risk Modeling of Typical Aircrafts Runway Excursion[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2023, 41(6): 42-50. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2023.06.005
Citation: WANG Feiyin, YUAN Jintong, WANG Lei. Coupling Failure Mode and Risk Modeling of Typical Aircrafts Runway Excursion[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2023, 41(6): 42-50. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2023.06.005
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Coupling Failure Mode and Risk Modeling of Typical Aircrafts Runway Excursion

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2023.06.005
  • 1.

    College of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China

  • 2.

    National Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Operation Safety Technology, Tianjin 300300, China

  • 3.

    Key Laboratory of Airlines Artificial Intelligence of Civil Aviation of China, Tianjin 300300, China

  • Received Date: 2023-03-22
    Available Online: 2024-04-03
    Abstract
  • Runway excursion is identified as high-risk event by the International Air Transport Association. To explore the pattern of runway excursion incidents in global civil aviation and to explore the influencing factors and their coupling characteristics, the investigation reports of 57 runway excursion incidents of typical aircraft types from 2007 to 2018 are analyzed from the perspectives of number of casualties, aircraft types and causes of the incidents. The HFACS model and SHELL model are used to compensate for the limitations of using a single method considering the diversity and complexity of influencing factors of runway excursion incidents. Specifically, the HFACS model is optimized and adopted to vertically analyze the influence of human factors in the runway excursion event, change the traditional method of the SHELL model to analyze the coupling influence of multiple factors in the runway excursion event systematically and comprehensively and use the FMEA method to explore the coupling effect of multiple influencing factors in the runway excursion event and find 18 multifactor coupling failure modes that induce the runway excursion. The results showed that the risk priority of the failure modes is quantified by identifying the occurrence, severity, and detection of the failure modes. The results showed that 91.2% of the runway excursion events occurred in the landing phase, and 87.7% of the runway excursion events were related to the crew human influence, among which insufficient control of the aircraft occurred most frequently, accounting for 31.1%. Multi-factor coupling caused 78.9% of the events, and the risk priority value of failure mode F2-1 crew factors and meteorological factors in multi-factor coupling failure mode is the highest at 364.8, with an occurrence rate of 21.05%, which is the object that needs to be focused on prevention and control, indicating that pilots need to strengthen the simulation training of runway excursion under complex weather conditions.

     

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